Day 5: +17,630 RON After the Toughest Night, With the Whole Balance on El Clásico

Sunday, October 25. The last bets went in after midnight, on October 26, but I counted them in the same day, because they are part of the same day of play. The figures come from my Betfair account, hour by hour.

The day I came one step from leaving the game.

If I had to sum up yesterday in one sentence: at 21:22 I was at −35,509 RON net and my real chances of staying in the game were under 10%. After midnight I was in the green. And between those two moments, an El Clásico I will remember all my life.

Morning: one wrong step, then two comebacks.

I started with three bets on Garland, at odds between 2.04 and 2.06, against Prozorova. It did not work (Garland score: 4–6, 6–3, 3–6) and I paid 2,508.75 RON. Then the day turned: Kostovic beat Zakharova (6–3, 6–2) and brought me +5,112.18 RON, and Rybakina got past Fernandez, also in two sets (6–2, 6–2): +2,607.07 RON. At 11:19 I withdrew 5,000 RON from the account.

At lunchtime came Medvedev – Basilashvili. I went in with 10,000 RON at odds of 1.32. Medvedev lost the first set (6–7) and his odds jumped to 1.89. That is when I added 2,083 RON and 5,636.20 RON, at 1.89 and 1.88. He won the next two sets without trouble (6–1, 6–3) and the bet brought +9,480.00 RON.

Afternoon: four losses that ate everything.

Then the streak began. Cerundolo – Altmaier: I lost 2,199.20 RON on Altmaier (Altmaier score: 6–7, 3–6). Sonego, in the Vienna qualifying, with three bets totalling 5,000 RON, lost to Fearnley (Sonego score: 1–6, 7–6, 4–6) and I lost 5,000 RON. Kovacevic, at odds of 3.74, lost to Mpetshi Perricard in two tie-breaks (Kovacevic score: 6–7, 6–7): −5,000 RON. And in Mannarino – Molcan I went in with 13,000 RON on Molcan, in three bets, at odds of 2.11, 2.12 and 3.30. Molcan lost (Molcan score: 5–7, 2–6): −13,000 RON.

Four losses between 15:55 and 17:54, 25,199.20 RON gone. It is not the amount that hurts most, it is the pressure that builds: every next match starts to look like a chance to win it back. I tried not to let it push me.

Hoffenheim – Leverkusen: six minutes that changed the evening.

At 17:09 and 17:11 I put 5,000 and 2,000 RON on Leverkusen, at odds of 2.74 and 2.70. Hoffenheim won 3–0 and I lost 7,000 RON (Leverkusen score: 0–3). But at 18:19 I bet 10,000 RON on Over 1.5 goals, at odds of 3.23, and the bet was settled in just 6 minutes: +21,198.89 RON. The difference between two hours of nerves and a match that gives you all the money back.

Struff and Celta: the evening went downhill.

At 17:49 I started adding on Struff, in the match against Griekspoor: 10,000, 6,000, 5,000 and 100 RON, at odds between 1.97 and 2.38. He won the first set and I thought it was fine, then he lost the next two (Struff score: 6–4, 3–6, 4–6). −21,100 RON, the hardest hit of the day.

In Celta Vigo – Betis I put 10,000 and 198.90 RON on Celta (odds of 2.97 and 3.60), plus a bet on 12 (no draw), risking 4,998 RON at odds of 3.04. 0–0. Both lost, −15,196.91 RON.

In Real Sociedad – Levante I bet on Over/Under 3.5 goals, in several bets, over the course of the match. Final score: 2–1. Net on the match: −2,901.93 RON.

At 21:22 the day stood at −35,508.65 RON. What was left in the account was almost exactly what I was about to risk on the next bet.

El Clásico: the whole balance on one card.

At 21:22:49, eight seconds before Real Sociedad was settled, I placed the biggest bet of the day: X2 (Barcelona not to win), risking 31,999.59 RON at odds of 2.59, practically everything I had left in the account. If Barcelona won, the game was over. It was that simple, and my real chances of staying in the game were under 10%.

At 23:35 I put 10,000 RON on Barcelona, at odds of 2.48, as a partial safety net. At 23:41 I went in with 14,800.50 RON on Over 3.5 goals, at odds of 5.00, and ten minutes later, when the odds dropped to 3.46–3.56, I closed the position with an opposite bet, 21,200 RON in total. After that all I could do was watch.

Real Madrid, bravo, boys. All 11 of them worked, with a high press and every drop of energy, at the limit of what is physically possible, with maximum concentration. An incredible match, won 1–2, with Mbappé scoring twice. At the end: the X2 bet +38,830.86 RON (Barcelona score: 1–2, and X2 won) and Over/Under 3.5 +6,091.68 RON. I felt something come undone in my chest.

After midnight: one more step.

At 00:01 and 00:07 I put X2 in the Sporting – Académico de Viseu match, risking 13,515.40 RON in two bets, at an average X2 odds of 1.64. Viseu won at Alvalade, 1–2: +8,216.58 RON. The day ended at +17,630.47 RON.

What stays with me: two hours in which everything could have ended, and a night that convinced me the game is not over as long as you know when to stay calm and when to close the position.

All bets of the day

Source: Betfair account statement. Play responsibly, 18+. Not betting advice.