Day 4: +31,599 RON from 16 Bets, With the Last Two After Midnight
Day's result
Net profit for the day
16 bets, 11 won, 5 lost
Saturday, October 24. The last two bets went in after midnight, on October 25, but I counted them in the 24th, because they are part of the same day of play. The figures come from my Betfair account, hour by hour.
A day that started on the way up and dropped suddenly.
The day actually began in the night of the 23rd to the 24th: Musetti (10,909 RON, average odds of 1.48) got past Van Assche, 7–6, 6–7, 6–4, and the bet brought +4,944.60 RON. At 09:26 Samsonova–Watson ended, where I had bets on both sides. Watson won 2–6, 7–5, 7–6, and the net result was +1,708.60 RON.
At 12:11, Maya Joint beat Golubic (6–7, 6–4, 7–5) and brought me +7,789.78 RON, a position built in seven steps, in just 27 minutes. Five minutes later, Siniakova (6–1, 6–4 against Boulter) closed a position of 32,000 RON at odds of 1.22: +6,701.98 RON. A perfect start.
Then came the streak. Bouzkova (−6,563 RON; 3–6, 5–7), Kecmanovic (−2,491.70 RON; 6–7, 3–6), Tsitsipas (−4,000 RON; 4–6, 7–6, 3–6). Three losses in a row, 13,054.70 RON gone between 12:32 and 15:25. I know the feeling: it is not the amount that hurts, it is the rhythm. After every loss you look harder at the next match, and in betting looking too hard quickly turns into a bigger stake to win it back. I did the opposite: I waited for the right bet.
Fritz – Paul, a semi-final with a story.
In Lyon, two Americans who have known each other since childhood. Tommy Paul beat Taylor Fritz in the Roland-Garros juniors final in 2015, and Fritz took his revenge in the US Open juniors final the same year. Together they won the doubles bronze at the Paris Olympics. The tournament had never had an American in the semi-final; now the first finalist was guaranteed to be one.
Fritz came in confident: the day before he had beaten Altmaier, 7–6(5), 6–2, and had said he was serving very well. I staked 9,000 RON on Fritz, average odds of 1.58. He won: +4,928.20 RON net. Fritz won in two sets, 6–3, 7–5.
Baez – Mpetshi Perricard: the pre-match chart in free fall.
This is the bet I remember from this day. The two had met in January at the Australian Open, where Báez won an epic three-hour match against the French "cannon". This time, Mpetshi Perricard's odds started the day at about 2.22 and fell almost without stopping to about 1.65 before the first ball. Then, live, they dropped further.
When odds fall like that, with no pauses, it means big money is pushing in one direction. Maybe some information came out before the odds moved, maybe a player is not at 100%, maybe it is just informed money pulling the line down. I do not need to know the reason. The direction of the money is my information. 1,656,977.56 RON was traded on the selection: exactly the kind of bet I go into calmly.
The entry: 16:41, 8,591 RON at average odds of 1.98. Mpetshi Perricard won, 6–3, 3–6, 6–3. +7,949.50 RON net, the best return of the day on a single bet. A fat plus.
The evening: Cobolli, Struff and a night that rolled into October 25.
At 17:18 I went in with 5,469 RON on Cobolli in the semi-final against Musetti, average odds of 1.79. He lost: Cobolli took the first set, 6–4, then gave up the next two, 2–6 and 5–7. −5,468.90 RON. The same Musetti I had backed a day earlier, in the quarter-final against Van Assche, this time took my money.
In the evening I changed direction: 11,300 RON on Struff, average odds of 2.04, in the match against Fils, plus 1,300 RON on Struff +3.5 on the handicap, odds of 2.06. Struff won 6–4, 6–7, 7–6, and both bets came in: +11,157.27 RON and +1,302.29 RON. The deciding set was settled in a tie-break.
Then football: 7,460 RON on Atletico Madrid, odds of 1.60, against Deportivo La Coruña. Atletico won 1–0: +4,254.89 RON.
After midnight, so on October 25 but in the same day of play, at 00:22 I put 6,715 RON on Heide, odds of 2.05, at a challenger in Cali. Pucinelli de Almeida won, and Heide lost both sets, 3–6, 5–7: −6,714.50 RON. The last bet of the day, 5,000 RON on Palmeiras, odds of 1.53, against Bragantino: 2–0, +2,508.75 RON.
All bets of the day
| Time | Match / selection | Stake RON | Avg. odds | Net RON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:39 | SE Palmeiras v Red Bull Bragantino — SE Palmeiras (Match Odds)Palmeiras score: 2–0 | 5,000 | 1.53 | +2,508.75 |
| 00:22 | Gu Heide v Mat Pucinelli de Almeid — Gustavo Heide (Match Odds)Heide score: 3–6, 5–7 | 6,715 | 2.05 | −6,714.50 |
| 23:56 | Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna — Atletico Madrid (Match Odds)Atletico Madrid score: 1–0 | 7,460 | 1.60 | +4,254.89 |
| 22:02 | Fils v Struff — Struff +3.5 HandicapStruff score: 6–4, 6–7, 7–6 | 1,300 | 2.06 | +1,302.29 |
| 21:59 | Fils v Struff — Jan-Lennard Struff (Match Odds)Struff score: 6–4, 6–7, 7–6 | 11,300 | 2.04 | +11,157.27 |
| 19:42 | Cobolli v Musetti — Flavio Cobolli (Match Odds)Cobolli score: 6–4, 2–6, 5–7 | 5,469 | 1.79 | −5,468.90 |
| 17:12 | Se Baez v Mpetshi Perricard — Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Match Odds)Mpetshi Perricard score: 6–3, 3–6, 6–3 | 8,591 | 1.98 | +7,949.50 |
| 16:50 | Paul v Fritz — Taylor Fritz (Match Odds)Fritz score: 6–3, 7–5 | 9,000 | 1.58 | +4,928.20 |
| 16:29 | Kayl Day v S Zhang — Shuai Zhang (Match Odds)Zhang score: 6–3, 3–6, 7–5 | 10,000 | 1.38 | +3,591.19 |
| 15:25 | Basilashvili v Tsitsipas — Stefanos Tsitsipas (Match Odds)Tsitsipas score: 4–6, 7–6, 3–6 | 4,000 | 2.15 | −4,000.00 |
| 13:43 | Kecmanovic v Ri Hijikata — Miomir Kecmanovic (Match Odds)Kecmanovic score: 6–7, 3–6 | 2,492 | 1.93 | −2,491.70 |
| 12:32 | L Fernandez v M Bouzkova — Marie Bouzkova (Match Odds)Bouzkova score: 3–6, 5–7 | 6,563 | 2.46 | −6,563.00 |
| 12:16 | Boulter v K Siniakova — Katerina Siniakova (Match Odds)Siniakova score: 6–1, 6–4 | 32,000 | 1.22 | +6,701.98 |
| 12:11 | Ma Joint v Golubic — Maya Joint (Match Odds)Joint score: 6–7, 6–4, 7–5 | 5,999 | 2.38 | +7,789.78 |
| 09:26 | L Samsonova v Watson — Heather Watson (Match Odds)Watson score: 2–6, 7–5, 7–6 | 11,506 | 2.75 | +1,708.60 |
| 02:17 | Van Assche v Musetti — Lorenzo Musetti (Match Odds)Musetti score: 7–6, 6–7, 6–4 | 10,909 | 1.48 | +4,944.60 |
Source: Betfair account statement. Play responsibly, 18+. Not betting advice.
