Day 3: +30,088 RON from 11 Bets, With the Whole Balance on the Line Twice
Day's result
Net profit for the day
11 bets, 8 won, 3 lost
Friday, October 23. The account started the morning with 10,821.45 RON.
The day I put the whole balance on the line twice
At 10:50 I deposited 10,820 RON. At 12:55, the first stake: 10,821 RON on Katie Boulter, that is, everything I had in the account, at average odds of 1.94. If she lost, the day would end right there, like on October 21 and 22. It was the second step of the plan after day 1, the 10,000 RON; if I lost that, only the last 10,000 RON would remain. She won: +9,539.24 RON. The nerves were intense: Katie Boulter lost the first set, 3–6, and I was already thinking about the loss and what to do next. But she turned the match around against Ruzic: 6–3, 6–3.
At 13:36, the same scene. Marco Trungelliti, odds of 1.33, 20,361 RON out of 20,360.69, once again the whole balance. And again it worked: +6,359.36 RON. Trungelliti beat Dodig in two sets, 6–4, 6–2.
Lyon: Paul, Moutet and two questions about the same match
The big stake of the afternoon: the quarter-finals at the Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Moutet – Paul. Corentin Moutet, world number 94, had knocked out Ugo Humbert, the 7th seed, in the first round, and was playing in front of the French crowd. Tommy Paul (4th seed of the tournament, ATP number 15) had beaten him twice before. I put 20,311 RON on Paul, odds of 1.51.
The match lasted 2 hours and 45 minutes. Score from Paul's perspective: 6–4, 3–6, 6–3. Moutet levelled in the second set, and there the match had hours of tension. Paul still closed it in three sets: +9,800.13 RON.
What did not work: the same match, a second bet, on the handicap, Paul −2.5 at odds of 1.50, 6,600 RON. Paul won 15 games to 13: a difference of 2 does not cover a handicap of 2.5. −6,600 RON. Two bets on the same match answer two different questions: “who wins” and “by what margin”.
Bublik – Khachanov: getting out at 6–6
I went in on Khachanov with two bets of 4,000 RON each, at odds of 2.23 and 1.94. The match went to a decider, and at 6–6 in the third set I got out: I put 10,164 RON against Khachanov, at odds of 1.64, to stay in profit whoever won. It evened out the bet at about +2,000 RON either way. Bublik won, and the match score from Khachanov's perspective was 6–4, 6–7, 6–7. Net: +2,034.59 RON.
Altmaier – Fritz: the set that went to a tie-break
In the evening I bet 2,112 RON on Altmaier to win the first set against Fritz, average odds of 2.52. Altmaier had beaten Fritz at Roland-Garros 2025, in four sets, in the first round. This time Fritz took the first set in a tie-break (7–6(5)), then the match, 6–2 in the second. Score from Altmaier's perspective: 6–7, 2–6. Loss: −2,112 RON. Fritz had taken his revenge.
All bets of the day
| Time | Match / selection | Stake RON | Avg. odds | Net RON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:36 | Struff v Ziz Bergs — Jan-Lennard Struff (Match Odds)Struff score: 6–3, 7–6 | 4,604 | 1.90 | +560.84 |
| 22:31 | Cobolli v Nakashima — Cobolli +1.5 HandicapCobolli score: 4–6, 6–4, 6–4 | 5,131 | 2.08 | +5,217.60 |
| 20:09 | Pellegrino v Sv Gulin — Svyatoslav Gulin (Match Odds)Gulin score: 7–5, 6–0 | 5,000 | 2.08 | +5,096.72 |
| 20:06 | Bublik v Khachanov — Karen Khachanov (Match Odds)Khachanov score: 6–4, 6–7, 6–7 | 18,164 | 1.84 | +2,034.59 |
| 19:15 | Altmaier v Fritz — Daniel Altmaier (Set 1 Winner)Altmaier score: 6–7, 2–6 | 2,112 | 2.52 | −2,112.00 |
| 18:00 | Moutet v Paul — Paul −2.5 HandicapPaul score: 6–4, 3–6, 6–3 | 6,600 | 1.50 | −6,600.00 |
| 17:56 | Moutet v Paul — Tommy Paul (Match Odds)Paul score: 6–4, 3–6, 6–3 | 20,311 | 1.51 | +9,800.13 |
| 15:15 | Misolic v Ribecai — Michele Ribecai (Match Odds)Ribecai score: 6–2, 6–1 | 23,720 | 1.14 | +3,191.87 |
| 14:51 | I Jović v Di Shnaider — Iva Jovic (Match Odds)Jovic score: 3–6, 6–4, 1–6 | 3,000 | 3.90 | −3,000.00 |
| 13:36 | Trungelliti v Ma Dodig — Marco Trungelliti (Match Odds)Trungelliti score: 6–4, 6–2 | 20,361 | 1.33 | +6,359.36 |
| 12:55 | Boulter v Ruzic — Katie Boulter (Match Odds)Boulter score: 3–6, 6–3, 6–3 | 10,821 | 1.94 | +9,539.24 |
Source: Betfair account statement. Play responsibly, 18+. Not betting advice.
